Working Papers & Reports
This section includes lists working papers, reports, and other think-tank publications that have co-authored since 2020 as part of my work for Groupe d'études géopolitiques (GEG). These are mostly focused on election analysis, with a strong quantitative focus.
Note that this work was conducted pro-bono and is unrelated to my employment at ETH Zürich.
Working Papers & Reports (7)
10 Key Lessons of the 2024 European Parliament Election
François Hublet
Electoral Bulletins of the European Union (BLUE),
2025
@article{hublet202510,
title = {10 Key Lessons of the 2024 European Parliament Election},
author = {François Hublet},
year = {2025},
journal = {Electoral Bulletins of the European Union},
number = {5},
publisher = {Groupe d'études géopolitiques}
}
Regional election in Thuringia, 1 September 2024
François Hublet
Electoral Bulletins of the European Union (BLUE),
2025
@article{hublet2025regional,
title = {Regional election in Thuringia, 1 September 2024},
author = {François Hublet},
year = {2025},
journal = {Electoral Bulletins of the European Union},
volume = {5},
publisher = {Groupe d'études géopolitiques}
}
Elections régionales en Thuringe, 1er septembre 2024
François Hublet
Electoral Bulletins of the European Union (BLUE),
2025
@article{hublet2025elections,
title = {Elections régionales en Thuringe, 1er septembre 2024},
author = {François Hublet},
year = {2025},
journal = {Electoral Bulletins of the European Union},
volume = {5},
publisher = {Groupe d'études géopolitiques}
}
Spelling out the European center-right’s dilemma: Renewal of the Grand coalition or National-Conservative Alliance?
François Hublet, Mattéo Lanoë, & Johanna Schleyer
2023
One year ahead of the next European election, the potential for a coalition between center-right and far-right parties at European level seems real. This paper analyzes the current situation in three steps. First, we present the key electoral trends for the main European political families during the last parliamentary term. In light of these trends, we then propose three main coalition scenarios for the next term, which we call “Merkel scenario”, “Kristersson scenario”, and “Meloni scenario”. Finally, we highlight the decisive role that German conservatives and the liberal Renew group are likely to play in arbitrating between these three political configurations.
@misc{hublet2023spelling,
title = {Spelling out the European center-right’s dilemma: Renewal of the Grand coalition or National-Conservative Alliance?},
author = {François Hublet and Mattéo Lanoë and Johanna Schleyer},
year = {2023},
publisher = {Groupe d'études géopolitiques}
}
Le dilemme de la droite européenne : nouvelle Grande Coalition ou majorité national-conservatrice ?
François Hublet, Mattéo Lanoë, & Johanna Schleyer
2023
À un an des prochaines élections européennes, la possibilité d'une coalition entre les partis de centre-droit et d'extrême-droite au niveau européen semble réelle. Ce document analyse la situation actuelle en trois temps. Tout d'abord, on présente le bilan électoral et les tendances-clés à l’échelle des familles politiques européennes lors de la dernière législature. À la lumière de ces tendances, on propoe ensuite trois scénarios de coalition pour la prochaine législature, baptisés « scénario Merkel », « scénario Kristersson » et « scénario Meloni ». Enfin, on souligne le rôle crucial que devraient jouer les conservateurs allemands et le groupe libéral Renew dans l'arbitrage entre ces trois configurations politiques.
@inproceedings{hublet2023le,
title = {Le dilemme de la droite européenne : nouvelle Grande Coalition ou majorité national-conservatrice ?},
author = {François Hublet and Mattéo Lanoë and Johanna Schleyer},
year = {2023},
publisher = {Groupe d'études géopolitiques}
}
Nationalisme, souverainisme, virilisme : aux sources de la guerre russe contre l'Ukraine
François Hublet
2022
@misc{hublet2022nationalisme,
title = {Nationalisme, souverainisme, virilisme : aux sources de la guerre russe contre l'Ukraine},
author = {François Hublet},
year = {2022},
publisher = {Fondation Robert Schuman}
}
Nationalism, sovereignism, virilism: the sources of the Russian war against Ukraine
François Hublet
2022
@misc{hublet2022nationalism,
title = {Nationalism, sovereignism, virilism: the sources of the Russian war against Ukraine},
author = {François Hublet},
year = {2022},
publisher = {Fondation Robert Schuman}
}
Regional election in Berlin, 26 September 2021
François Hublet
Electoral Bulletins of the European Union (BLUE),
2022
@article{hublet2022regional,
title = {Regional election in Berlin, 26 September 2021},
author = {François Hublet},
year = {2022},
journal = {Electoral Bulletins of the European Union},
volume = {2},
publisher = {Groupe d'études géopolitiques}
}
Élections régionales à Berlin, 26 septembre 2021
François Hublet
Electoral Bulletins of the European Union (BLUE),
2022
@article{hublet2022élections,
title = {Élections régionales à Berlin, 26 septembre 2021},
author = {François Hublet},
year = {2022},
journal = {Electoral Bulletins of the European Union},
volume = {2},
publisher = {Groupe d'études géopolitiques}
}
The Scale of Trust: Local, Regional, National and European Politics in Perspective
Jean-Sébastien Arrighi, Jean-Toussaint Battestini, Lucie Coatleven, François Hublet, Sofia Marini, & Victor Queudet
2022
It is a well-established reality that, throughout Europe, local and regional institutions are more trusted than national governments. In view of the striking gap between citizens’ trust in the various institutional levels and the actual sets of competences with which each of these levels is endowed, this study also intends to be a call to action. In order to remedy democratic deficits in both the Union’s and member-states’ political systems, it appears urgent to provide each decision-making level with the competences for which it can rely on the broadest base of trust.
@misc{arrighi2022the,
title = {The Scale of Trust: Local, Regional, National and European Politics in Perspective},
author = {Jean-Sébastien Arrighi and Jean-Toussaint Battestini and Lucie Coatleven and François Hublet and Sofia Marini and Victor Queudet},
year = {2022},
publisher = {Groupe d'études géopolitiques}
}
L'échelle de la confiance : politiques locales, régionales, nationales et européenne en perspective
Jean-Sébastien Arrighi, Jean-Toussaint Battestini, Lucie Coatleven, François Hublet, Sofia Marini, & Victor Queudet
2022
It is a well-established reality that, throughout Europe, local and regional institutions are more trusted than national governments. In view of the striking gap between citizens’ trust in the various institutional levels and the actual sets of competences with which each of these levels is endowed, this study also intends to be a call to action. In order to remedy democratic deficits in both the Union’s and member-states’ political systems, it appears urgent to provide each decision-making level with the competences for which it can rely on the broadest base of trust.
@misc{arrighi2022l'échelle,
title = {L'échelle de la confiance : politiques locales, régionales, nationales et européenne en perspective},
author = {Jean-Sébastien Arrighi and Jean-Toussaint Battestini and Lucie Coatleven and François Hublet and Sofia Marini and Victor Queudet},
year = {2022},
publisher = {Groupe d'études géopolitiques}
}
Subsidiary crisis management in the COVID-19 pandemic. Germany’s federalist experiment in transborder perspective
Lucie Coatleven, François Hublet, & Théophile Rospars
2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a major shock in the life of all Europeans. While those citizens living near Europe’s internal borders have often been hit the hardest, many regions, both peripheral and central, have suffered from the excessive centralism of national governments. Building on twenty interviews with regional politicians and experts from a dozen European countries, our trilingual report with a foreword by Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn suggests "subsidiary crisis management", a novel approach inspired by the institutional response of Germany, Switzerland or Belgium during the crisis, as a way to make our crisis response more regionally flexible and citizen-centric.
@misc{coatleven2020subsidiary,
title = {Subsidiary crisis management in the COVID-19 pandemic. Germany’s federalist experiment in transborder perspective},
author = {Lucie Coatleven and François Hublet and Théophile Rospars},
year = {2020},
publisher = {Groupe d'études géopolitiques}
}
Covid-19 et gestion de crise subsidiaire. Perspectives transfrontalières à la lumière du fédéralisme allemand
Lucie Coatleven, François Hublet, & Théophile Rospars
2020
La pandémie de Covid-19 a marqué les territoires européens. Les fermetures de frontières ont créé un choc majeur dans la vie de la population transfrontalière, tandis que nombre de régions ont subi un centralisme excessif de la part des gouvernements nationaux. Fruit d’une vingtaine d’entretiens avec des responsables régionaux et des experts d’une douzaine de pays, préfacé par le ministre des Affaires étrangères du Luxembourg Jean Asselborn, ce rapport trilingue propose de s’inspirer de la réponse institutionnelle allemande, suisse ou belge pour imaginer une « gestion de crise subsidiaire » au service des citoyens et des territoires.
@misc{coatleven2020covid-19,
title = {Covid-19 et gestion de crise subsidiaire. Perspectives transfrontalières à la lumière du fédéralisme allemand},
author = {Lucie Coatleven and François Hublet and Théophile Rospars},
year = {2020},
publisher = {Groupe d'études géopolitiques}
}
Subsidiäres Krisenmanagement in der Corona-Pandemie: Bundesrepublikanisches Erfolgsmodell und grenzübergreifende Perspektiven
Lucie Coatleven, François Hublet, & Théophile Rospars
2020
Die COVID-19-Pandemie hat die europäischen Regionen stark getroffen. Während viele Menschen in den Grenzgebieten die Grenzschließungen als einen historischen Schock erlebten, hatten viele Regionen unter dem exzessiven Zentralismus ihrer nationalen Regierungen zu leiden. Auf der Grundlage von zwanzig Interviews mit Politikern und Experten aus einem Dutzend europäischen Ländern schlägt unser dreisprachiger Bericht mit einem Vorwort des luxemburgischen Außenministers Jean Asselborn ein neuartiges „subsidiäres Krisenmanagement” vor. Ziel dieses vom deutschen, schweizerischen und belgischen Krisenmanagements inspirierten Ansatzes ist es, eine bürgernahe und flexible Krisenbewältigung in Europa zu fördern, die regionalen Unterschieden sowie der besonderen Stellung der Grenzgebiete Rechnung trägt.
@misc{coatleven2020subsidiäres,
title = {Subsidiäres Krisenmanagement in der Corona-Pandemie: Bundesrepublikanisches Erfolgsmodell und grenzübergreifende Perspektiven},
author = {Lucie Coatleven and François Hublet and Théophile Rospars},
year = {2020},
publisher = {Groupe d'études géopolitiques}
}